Recently released statistics on African population growth tell a different story to what the prophets of doom want us to believe. In no other continent is population growth falling as fast as in Africa. While in 1960 African women bore an average of 6.6 children, today it is 3.8. By 2050, the annual UN report calculates, it will drop further to 2.6.
The report's authors point to several reasons for this decline. Fewer children die shortly after birth, and life expectancy has been increasing. In general, with more development, population growth decreases. Not surprisingly, the poorest countries on the continent show the highest fertility rates. Children are a life insurance for those who have nothing.
At the same time, the report makes it clear that despite the decline in growth, Africa will become the continent with the most inhabitants by 2050: 2.5 billion.
You might say: there is plenty of space. And there is no lack of resources. UN statisticians argue that there can be a “demographic dividend” when the number of working people relative to the number of non-working people increases dramatically.
This does not happen by itself. Good governance is probably the most important condition for reaping the dividend. Charity and official aid might help, but only a bit. It can also work against necessary changes, if money ends up in the pockets of a self-enriching elite, as so often happens. Those who want to help should direct their support at those who advocate for meaningful change: young protest movements and the explorers of imaginative alternatives. You will find them in investigative journalism, the arts, and in writing. And in this newsletter.
